Betting Sector Issues Direct Warning on Machine Games Duty Changes
Alex Coleman · Oct 14, 2026
Betting Sector Issues Direct Warning on Machine Games Duty Changes
Britain's largest bookmakers have sent a letter through the Betting and Gaming Council to Chancellor John Healey, and the communication obtained by Sky News spells out clear concerns about a possible increase in Machine Games Duty ahead of the Budget set for later in October. The document outlines projected outcomes that include between 690 and 1,470 additional betting shop closures along with 28 to 34 casino closures and between 11,600 and 15,900 job losses, while noting that effects would fall most heavily on northern England where half the shops in Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Makerfield constituency could close.
Details from the BGC Letter
The letter draws on BGC-commissioned EY analysis to show that any rise in Machine Games Duty would produce a net loss to the Treasury of up to £124 million once other tax receipts are taken into account. Observers note that the same analysis factors in the earlier decision to nearly double Remote Gaming Duty to 40 percent from April 2026, and it records the shop and job reductions that have already occurred since that change was announced. Those who've studied the figures point out that further duty increases would compound pressure on high-street operations that rely on gaming machines for a significant share of revenue.
Regional Concentration of Impacts
Data in the letter highlight that closures would not be spread evenly across the country. Northern England stands to see the largest share of shop losses, and the projection for Makerfield specifically shows that half the local betting outlets could disappear. Researchers who examined the constituency-level breakdown explain that many of these locations already operate on narrow margins, and any additional tax burden would push more of them below the viability threshold. The letter therefore urges the Chancellor to consider these geographic patterns before finalising Budget measures.
Context of Prior Tax Adjustments
The current warning arrives after the near-doubling of Remote Gaming Duty that takes effect in April 2026. Industry records show that betting shops and related employment have declined steadily since that policy direction became clear, and the BGC letter positions the proposed Machine Games Duty rise as the next step in the same sequence. Figures supplied to the Chancellor indicate that the combined effect of both duty changes would exceed the direct revenue gain once corporation tax, business rates and income tax shortfalls are subtracted, producing the estimated £124 million net reduction for the Exchequer.
Those who track employment data in the sector note that the job-loss range of 11,600 to 15,900 includes both direct roles in betting shops and casinos and indirect positions in supply and support services. The letter emphasises that many of these roles are concentrated in areas already experiencing slower economic recovery, which is why the northern England concentration receives particular mention.
Projected Financial Outcomes for the Treasury
The EY modelling referenced in the letter calculates that additional Machine Games Duty receipts would be more than offset by reductions in other tax streams. The £124 million upper-end net loss figure emerges after these offsets are applied, and the analysis presents a lower-bound scenario that still shows a negative outcome for overall revenue. The BGC letter therefore argues that maintaining the current Machine Games Duty rate would protect both employment levels and the broader tax base that the Treasury currently receives from the sector.
Next Steps in the Budget Process
The letter represents a direct appeal to the Chancellor in advance of the October Budget decisions. It supplies the EY-derived numbers on closures, jobs and exchequer effects so that the government can weigh them against revenue targets. People who follow fiscal announcements observe that similar industry submissions have preceded previous Budget rounds, and the current document follows the established pattern of providing modelling alongside requests for policy restraint.
Conclusion
The BGC letter to John Healey sets out the specific risks attached to any Machine Games Duty increase, including the quantified shop and casino closures, the job-loss range and the projected net cost to the Treasury. It places these outcomes in the context of the Remote Gaming Duty change scheduled for April 2026 and the regional distribution of effects, particularly in northern England. The document supplies the EY analysis so that the Chancellor has the sector's modelled figures available when finalising the October Budget.